Center Hosted Event
On December 3, the Center hosted a presentation by renowned expert Chuck Watson on coastal storms and hurricanes. Following the most
active hurricane season on record, and in the aftermath of severe damage done by Hurricane Katrina in nearby coastal areas along the
Gulf of Mexico, the Center wanted to hear about the prospects for coastal Georgia.
Watson speaks with authority on the subject - he is a widely recognized climate modeling expert, using complex computer programs to
analyze variables such as ocean temperatures, currents, and weather patterns, in predicting storm trends and their implications. A
Savannah resident, Mr. Watson works professionally in providing consultation to clients such as the State of Florida and the United
Nations. The Center was honored to have such an esteemed speaker on this most critical subject, so important to residents of coastal areas.
In his presentation, Mr. Watson used a number of graphic displays such as charts and graphs depicting historic and predicted storm activity.
He emphasized that modeling is not capable of predicting individual events and their impacts, only general patterns and probabilities over
time. As he explained, the amount of damage a storm does is highly dependent on the tide cycle and direction of the storm travels in
approaching a given coastal area.
"Marshes are definitely a helpful barrier protecting higher ground in shoreline areas, but only if a hurricane hits during a relatively
low tide when the marshlands are above water level. If a major storm comes when the marsh is submersed by high tide, damage from storm
surge and flooding would be far greater," he said.
Watson also spoke about sea level rise, produced by a long-term warming trend in average global temperature. Regardless of its causes
(widely believed to be aggravated by various emissions released in human activities), the warming trend is a fact, with critical
implications that are still being studied, he told the audience. Although Watson's analysis indicates that the added damage from
major storms due to rising sea level is only marginal, that is only part of the story.
When trends in greater storm frequency and intensity (linked to global climate change) are combined with rising sea level, the added
consequences and probabilities of adverse outcomes are significant. Watson said that a storm of the intensity of Katrina could easily
do as much or more damage here as in the Gulf states, even though the population in coastal Georgia is much smaller. "Between wind damage,
storm surge, and flooding, coastal Georgia and many adjacent inland areas of the state could suffer damage at least as much as the Gulf
areas did, and the economy would be disrupted for several months or longer," Watson warned. (Estimates of Katrina's damage were in the
range of $200 billion, $60 billion of which were insured losses.)
Mr. Watson also explained that the shallow ocean along our coast can be a dangerous factor, since wind moving landward would push more water
than in deeper oceans, due to the dynamics of water moving against the ocean floor. How much more damage is hard to quantify, and would
depend on the tide cycle, direction of the storm's approach, and how fast it moves across the ocean as it comes ashore.
While some may view such events as inevitable acts of nature offering little chance of altering their outcome, Watson said that much more
could be done to reduce damage by improving building standards. He explained that many areas of Europe use storm-resistant design and
construction that are far superior to anything now in common use in the United States. In a separate conversation, Watson told the Center's
executive director that storm damage also could be reduced by being more selective about keeping new development out of higher-risk areas,
where damage could be far worse.
Although Watson is not a policy-maker nor does he actively promote specific policies related to his storm modeling, he made comments with
significant policy implications. The Center strongly supports a more conscientious approach to planning coastal development, which we believe
can substantially reduce risk to lives and property when a major storm hits. By preserving natural vegetation and landscapes along shorelines
and marshes, future growth would be exposed to far less storm damage. Likewise, keeping population within the capacity of safe evacuation options,
and locating populated areas where evacuation can be done faster and more effectively, will do much to limit the cost of future risks.
Public officials, property-owners, and tax-payers would be well-advised to consider the economic burden of our development choices on governmental
agencies, too. By making more enlightened decisions about the quality and location of future development, the preservation of natural safeguards
like wetlands and native trees, and reasonably avoiding areas prone to flooding and storm surge, we would be saving billions of dollars in
recovery costs when a major storm hits coastal Georgia. Without a thoughtful, deliberative new approach, policymakers will be continuing
the past practice of imposing the cost of coastal development onto all taxpayers, who indirectly, unfairly, and often unwittingly incur
coastal storm damage through publicly-subsidized insurance and infrastructure that promotes unwise building.
It is not a question of whether a major hurricane will strike coastal Georgia, but rather when it will occur,
and what we must do to better prepare for it. Until such a disaster happens, we have the opportunity to take steps
that will improve our recovery capabilities, and to limit the enormity of its cost in lost lives and property. The
Center urges your support in our efforts to help make public policy related to this issue more responsible, both
environmentally and fiscally.
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